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The socalled yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it's become a big topic on Wall Street Terms like "yieldYield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession The US curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years It offered a false signal just once in that timeIt's an abnormal situation that often signals an impending recession In a normal yield curve, the shortterm bills yield less than the longterm bonds Investors expect a lower return when their money is tied up for a shorter period They require a higher yield to give them more return on a longterm investment Yield Curve Watchers Don T Forget About Japan Kessler Yield curve recession 2020